Everything you'd reasonably want to know about BTM, TradingView access, billing, what the model can and can't do, and the research behind it. If something's missing, write us — we'd rather answer the question than dodge it.
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What BTM is, what it measures, and what it doesn't try to predict.
BTM — the Behavioral Transform Model — is a statistical envelope drawn around price. It uses recent volatility and drift to estimate where the next close would land under typical conditions, and renders an inner band (about ±1 standard deviation) and outer band (about ±2 standard deviations) live on a TradingView chart. The bands describe an expected range, not a forecast.
No. BTM has no view on direction. The band describes the range price would typically occupy if behavior stayed normal. When price sits inside the band, that's the normal regime. When price closes outside it, that's the model flagging behavior outside its expected range — an information signal about the regime, not an instruction to act.
Both draw bands around price. The differences are statistical and operational. BTM is a strictly causal prediction interval — it uses only information available at the prior bar’s close, with no lookahead in the volatility estimate. The width adjusts for drift, sample-size uncertainty, and the fat-tailed nature of returns. And the bands are calibrated empirically: across roughly 213,000 close observations on 40 instruments, the inner band contains ~71% of next-bar closes and the outer band ~94%. Bollinger Bands® weren’t designed as a calibrated statistical envelope; BTM was.
BTM has been measured across equities (single names, sector ETFs), FX (G10 majors), crypto (BTC, ETH), commodities (GLD, USO), and rates (TLT, IEF, ZN, ZB) on daily bars from 1928–2024 where data exists. Containment is approximately scale-invariant across resolutions — coverage stays within roughly 65–72% at the inner band from monthly down to 15-minute bars. The shortest intraday cuts (15m) drift slightly under, consistent with higher microstructure noise. Use it wherever returns are reasonably continuous; results outside the tested universe carry the usual caveats.
It's the empirically measured rate at which the next bar's close lands inside the inner band, across the calibration universe. The theoretical target under a normal distribution would be ~68%; the modest excess is the fat-tailed fingerprint of real return distributions. It is a descriptive property of past data, not a guarantee — the bands will under- and over-contain on individual stretches, especially during volatility regime changes.
The canonical window is 60 bars (about a calendar quarter on daily). That's the volatility-estimation lookback. Shorter windows make the band more reactive but noisier. Longer windows smooth more but lag through regime changes. We chose 60 because it preserves adaptivity to a regime shift within roughly one quarter while keeping the band well-calibrated. Window sensitivity is documented in §4.12 of the working paper.
How the indicator gets into your TradingView account and what that requires.
Yes. BTM runs as a private indicator inside TradingView, so you need a TradingView account in your name. If you don't already have one, you can create a free one at tradingview.com before signing up here. We are not affiliated with TradingView.
Three steps. (1) Create your Oisigma account and start the trial. (2) On the welcome screen, give us your exact TradingView username — it's case-sensitive. (3) We grant private-indicator access to that username; BTM then shows up in your chart under Indicators → Invite-only scripts.
Typically within a few hours during business hours, and within 24 hours otherwise. If something stalls, write us at hello@oisigma.com with your TradingView username and we'll unblock it.
Yes — the free plan runs BTM. Higher TradingView tiers (Essential, Plus, Premium) just let you keep more indicators on a chart at once and unlock more granular intraday timeframes from TradingView itself. The BTM script is the same.
Standard candle, OHLC bar, line, and area charts — BTM operates on closing prices, so it works wherever TradingView exposes a series of closes. Non-standard chart types that mutate the close (Heikin Ashi, Renko, Range, Kagi, Point & Figure) will show bands, but the closes feeding the model are synthetic, so containment statistics from the paper don't carry over. Use them at your own discretion.
Trial, recurring charge, cancellation policy, refunds — the small print, in plain English.
30 days, full access, no surprises. We collect a payment method at signup but don’t charge it until day 31. If you cancel before then, you owe nothing. We send a reminder email a few days before the trial ends so you have time to decide.
Your subscription auto-renews at $15/month, billed monthly to the card on file, until you cancel. No annual lock-in, no contract — it’s month-to-month. If we ever adjust pricing, we’ll give advance notice and you can cancel before the change takes effect.
From your account page, click Manage billing & cancellation and follow the instructions in the Stripe billing portal to cancel. You can also email hello@oisigma.com and we’ll process it for you.
We don't pro-rate refunds for partial months. You keep access through the end of the billing period you've already paid for, and won't be charged again. If you were charged in error or there's a real issue, write us — we'll do the right thing.
At the end of your current billing period. So if you cancel on day 5 of a monthly cycle, you keep access for the remaining 25 days, then access ends and you aren't billed again. You can resubscribe later at the same $15/mo if you change your mind.
All major credit and debit cards (Visa, Mastercard, Amex, Discover) via Stripe. We don't store card details on our servers — Stripe handles tokenization. Apple Pay and Google Pay are supported in browsers that offer them at checkout.
What BTM is not, and what we won't claim it does.
No. Oisigma is not a registered investment advisor and BTM is a descriptive statistical tool, not personalized financial advice. The output describes the recent statistical regime of an instrument; it does not tell you to buy, sell, hold, or size anything. Decisions are yours and only yours.
No. There are no buy/sell signals, no entries, no exits, no alerts that say “take this trade.” The band marks normal versus abnormal behavior. What you do with that information is a trading decision — not something the model has any opinion on.
No, and that's the point. Roughly 29% of next-bar closes land outside the inner band, and roughly 6% land outside the outer band — that's the measured rate, by design. A close outside the band is the model saying “this is outside the expected range,” which is the information signal. A band that “always contained price” would tell you nothing.
Containment degrades — by design. On the most extreme crisis-onset days (VIX above 30), inner-band containment falls to roughly 65%, versus about 71% normally. That’s expected — the model is a calibration of the normal regime, and crises are by definition abnormal. The band flagging a crisis is doing its job; the band describing a crisis as if it were normal would be the failure mode.
Yes, with caveats. At 60-bar window, weekly containment is ~71.6% and monthly is ~72.3% — essentially the same as daily. But practitioners often shorten the window on lower frequencies (12 weeks, 6 months); under those configurations raw containment drops to ~66% / ~62% because the finite-window null itself drops at smaller n. The band is still well-calibrated against the correct null; it's just a softer envelope in raw terms. Section 4.15 of the paper has the full breakdown.
Where the numbers come from and what they do and don't establish.
In full, with derivations, on the working paper page. It's the complete document — sections, tables, references, appendices — not a marketing summary. If you'd rather see the high-level shape, the proof page shows the headline calibration results and the how it works page walks the framework without the math.
No. It is a working paper, not a peer-reviewed publication. We label it that way deliberately so the reader knows what they're reading. The numbers are reproducible from the documented data and code, and the construction is fully specified, but they have not been independently refereed by an academic journal.
Across 40 instruments spanning equities, FX, commodities, crypto, and rates, on daily bars (1928–2024 where data exists), totalling roughly 213,000 close observations. Containment is computed in a strictly causal way — for each bar, the band is constructed from information available at the prior close only, and the realized close is then classified as inside or outside. No lookahead. No fitting to the test set. Full reproducibility instructions are in Appendix B of the paper.
Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) for most equities, ETFs, FX, commodities, and crypto on long-history daily series; curated price CSVs in Yahoo Finance format where FMP coverage was incomplete; VIX from FMP starting in 2005. Specific tickers, date ranges, and data-handling choices are itemized in Appendix A of the paper.
If something here didn't cover it, send the question to hello@oisigma.com or use the contact page. We read every message and reply in plain English — usually within a business day.
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