Oisigma exists to answer one question objectively — where is price expected to be, and when is a move actually unusual? — and to show the evidence, not just assert it.
If you trade, you know it. You draw a support line; price respects it, then slices straight through. Open the same chart next to another trader and you'll draw different levels. The tools that promise to fix this mostly can't be trusted — the internet is full of indicators selling green arrows and “90% win rate” screenshots with nothing behind them.
Oisigma started from a simple conviction: there should be a consistent, objective, evidence-backed way to see where price is expected to trade and when it has genuinely stepped outside that range — and you should be able to check the math yourself.
Oisigma was built by an independent researcher focused on defining market structure in a consistent, non-subjective way. The Behavioral Transform Model came out of that work: an attempt to take something traders do by feel — judging what's normal — and put it on a measured, inspectable footing.
The goal was never a black box or a signal service. It was a transparent reference frame: the same logic on every bar, across markets and timeframes, with the results documented openly rather than asserted.
— M. A. H. AlEssa
What's uncommon isn't the math — it's that we tested it honestly, across decades and markets, and reported the misses alongside the wins.
We lead with what was actually measured — across a century of the S&P 500 and 40 instruments — and we publish the working paper so you can inspect it line by line.
It's slightly optimistic in the deep tails and runs narrow in the first days of a fast crisis. A tool you can trust is one that admits what it can't do.
The construction is deliberately simple and uses well-known statistical components. The contribution is the calibration — replicable from the methodology in the paper.
BTM describes where price is relative to its recent range. It does not predict price, and it does not tell you what to do — that's your call, every time.
The methodology, every figure, the statistical tests, and the limitations are laid out in our working paper — complete and citable, not yet peer-reviewed, and open to comment.
AlEssa, M. A. H. (2026). “How Well Does a Rolling-Volatility Band Calibrate? Evidence Across Asset Classes and Market Regimes.” oisigma.com LLC. Not peer-reviewed.
Read the working paper →Your skepticism of trading indicators is healthy — keep it. We'd rather earn past it with evidence than ask you to suspend it. So we hold a few lines.
No buy/sell signals. No alerts that pretend to know what the next bar will do.
Decade misses, regime drops, tail shortfalls. All published, all in the paper.
Your strategy, your discipline, and your risk management are yours. The model is context, not a directive.
30 days free. Inspect the calibration on the symbols and timeframes you actually trade. Cancel anytime — no email, no chat-with-retention loop.
30 days free, then $15/mo. Cancel anytime from your account.
Pick up where you left off.